The more at stake, the more exaggerated your assertions become.
Rolf Dobelli explains it in his book ”The Art of Thinking Clearly”:
”Most vulnerable to strategic misrepresentation are mega-projects, where
- accountability is diffuse (for example, if the government that commissioned the project is no longer in power),
- many businesses are involved, leading to mutual finger-pointing, or
- the end date is a few years down the road.”
”Why are cost and schedule overruns so frequent? Because it is not the best offer overall that wins; it is whichever one looks best on paper.”
”Bent Flyvbjerg calls this reverse Darwinism': whoever produces the most hot air will be rewarded with the project.”